Retail inflation dipped to an over six-year low of 2.82 per cent in May due to subdued food prices, remaining below the RBI's median target of 4 per cent for the fourth consecutive month, according to government data released on Thursday. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation was 3.16 per cent in April and 4.8 per cent in May 2024.
'Rate cut looks unlikely and there is reason to believe that the cycle is over.'
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
Supported by strong buoyancy in public sector capital expenditure (capex), growth in infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate in 2025-26 (FY26) compared to 2024-25 (FY25), according to the First Advance Estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for FY26 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for the current financial year, lower than 5.4 per cent in the last fiscal. Assuming a normal monsoon this year, CPI (consumer price index-based) inflation for the current year is projected at 4.5 per cent, with Q1 at 4.9 per cent, Q2 at 3.8 per cent, Q3 at 4.6 per cent, and Q4 at 4.5 per cent.
Retail inflation eased to a nearly six-year low of 3.16 per cent in April mainly due to subdued prices of vegetables, fruits, pulses, and other protein-rich items, creating enough room for the Reserve Bank to go for another round of rate cut in the June monetary policy review. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.34 per cent in March and 4.83 per cent in April 2024. It was 3.15 per cent in July 2019.
The weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity may result in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points, opine top economists. They also said the external economic pressures like trade policies and others would require continued RBI's accommodative stance and policy support for the Indian industry to sustain the growth.
"We have to stand in readiness to go beyond keeping Arjuna's eye to deploying policy instruments, if necessary" to contain inflation, said Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday. Headline consumer price index-based inflation projection for the second quarter of 2023-24 has been revised up substantially, primarily due to the price shock from vegetables, at 6.2 per cent by the RBI form 5.2 per cent estimated in June. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, Governor Das said the moderation in headline inflation to 4.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2023-24 was in line with the projections set out in the June MPC meeting.
Business confidence in India Inc rose to a five-quarter high in December quarter of FY26, amid further reform expectations and steady domestic demand, a survey by industry body Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) showed. The CII Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose for the third consecutive quarter to 66.5 in the December quarter from 66 in the preceding September quarter.
Sanjay Malhotra takes charge as the 26th RBI governor at a time when headline retail inflation has shot up to 6.2%.
The World Bank on Tuesday raised India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent from 6.3 per cent estimated earlier, and said the country is expected to remain fastest-growing major economy, underpinned by continued strength in consumption growth.
Will rising tensions between US-Israel and Iran threaten crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, putting India's fuel prices, imports, and economic stability at risk?
The Union Budget for 2026-27, presented by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday, which was a first, had an excellent domestic macro backdrop. According to the first advance estimates, gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices is projected to grow 7.4 per cent in the current financial year, against 6.5 per cent in 2024-25.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected retail inflation at 4.2 percent for the next financial year beginning April while retaining the forecast for 2024-25 at 4.8 percent. The central bank attributed the expected easing of inflation to good kharif production, winter-easing in vegetable prices and favorable rabi crop prospects. However, the RBI also noted that continued uncertainty in global financial markets coupled with volatility in energy prices and adverse weather events presents upside risks to the inflation trajectory.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday delivered a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut analysts expected, driven by the strong 8.2 per cent GDP growth in the September quarter. However, analysts do not expect a runaway market rally as the impact of US tariffs continues.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Steel, Eternal, Tech Mahindra, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, HCL Tech, Tata Consultancy Services and Bharti Airtel were the major gainers. Telecom operator Bharti Airtel climbed nearly 1 per cent after it posted about a five-fold jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 11,022 crore in the March 2025 quarter, mainly due to the tariff hike impact and one-time gain on tax benefits. However, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Kotak Mahindra Bank, NTPC and Power Grid were among the laggards.
Sanjay Malhotra has made structural changes to banking regulation to bring down costs and increase efficiency. Plus, he kicked off a benign interest regime. But there are challenges ahead.
Jewellery makers are set to post strong revenue growth in the 2025-26 (FY26) October-December quarter (Q3), supported by a robust wedding season and rising value growth, even as volumes decline.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said tax cuts in the current fiscal has dented India's revenue growth, leaving less scope for fiscal policy support for the economy.
While investments are typically reviewed annually, risk cover is often left unchanged for years.
The Congress party has strongly criticized the Union Budget, calling it 'lacklustre' and 'disappointing,' claiming it fails to address the needs of farmers, unemployed youth, and other key sectors.
While gold continues to provide safety after its strong 2025 rally, well-chosen real estate investments held with a long-term view remain attractive.
From the Sensex firms, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, HCL Tech, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra and Infosys were among the major winners. However, Hindustan Unilever, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, and Sun Pharma were among the laggards.
Deloitte India on Thursday projected India's economy to grow 6.7-6.9 per cent in the current fiscal amid buoyant demand and policy reforms. Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal.
This is the first Budget in my memory of Budgets over the last half a century which has embraced upfront, enthusiastically and emphatically, technology, modernity and fiscal sobriety, notes Shreekant Sambrani.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Financial Stability Report (FSR), cautioned that stress tests indicate two scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) may have to dip into their capital conservation buffers (CCBs), unless stakeholders infuse capital, under a scenario involving a gradual slowdown in domestic GDP growth and a moderate rise in inflation, with limited policy easing space available to the central bank.
Even if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold interest rates in the October meeting, it acknowledged the scope for further rate cuts while waiting for the impact of the past steps to play out.
Ask rediffGURU Naveenn Kummar your insurance mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
The Maharashtra municipal elections showed a troubling shift, where votes were traded for cash, convictions no longer mattered, and ideology became an afterthought, observes Ramesh Menon.
Mundane as it may seem, this is in some ways a metaphor for the challenges facing the nation, argue Arvind Subramanian and Devesh Kapur in their new book, A Sixth Of Humanity.
The Indian rupee, swaying through multiple headwinds, tiding over global trade disruptions and massive foreign fund outlfows, is unlikely to arrest its descent until tariff impact overhangs, notwithstanding robust domestic macroeconomic tailwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which sees the rupee's depreciation as a silver bullet to offset the tariff shock, expects the currency to find its stable course once India reaches a trade deal with its largest trading partner, the US.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to a nearly six-year low of 3.34 per cent in March due to a decline in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.61 per cent in February and 4.85 per cent in March last year.
Wholesale price inflation moderated to 2.31 per cent in January due to the decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Friday showed. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.37 per cent in December 2024. It was 0.33 per cent in January 2024.
'Previously, contributing only 25 per cent of material costs, states now face burdens of 40 per cent to 100 per cent of total costs, ensuring poorer states will curb project approvals, directly stifling work demand.'
'Now there is no fight between us (Thackerays); now the fight is with them.'
The government aims to cover around 60 million people in the age category, irrespective of income, with an assured 5 lakh annually to be shared within the family.
Mixed views were expressed by top economists on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to hold the repo rate at 5.5% and maintain a neutral stance. While some say the decision was as expected and one more rate reduction is expected this fiscal, there is also a view that rate cut by MPC was warranted given the evolving global situation.
Releasing the first advanced estimate, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said that though excessive rainfall affected crops in some areas of the country, most parts have benefited significantly from a good monsoon, leading to overall good crop growth.
Filmmaker Vikram Bhatt and his wife have been arrested in connection with a Rs 30 crore cheating case filed in Rajasthan. They are accused of defrauding an Udaipur-based businessman under the guise of producing a biopic.
